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Premium Bonds are sold as a patriotic place to park cash, but the prize-fund maths is less cosy than the adverts. For the typical holder, the median return is far below the headline rate — and inflation does the rest.
Gilts are still sold to UK savers as the ultimate pension safe haven, but in 2026 that label is hiding duration risk, inflation risk and a very human tendency to confuse ‘government-backed’ with ‘capital-safe’. The contrarian move is not to dump bonds blindly — it’s to ask what job each gilt is actually doing in your portfolio.
Markets reckon the UK mortgage reset is already priced in. That is the consensus, and it is worth interrogating. The first-round payment shock is visible. The second-round hit to consumer spending, bank earnings and domestically exposed FTSE names is a slower, messier story that late 2026 markets may still be underestimating.